Impact of regionalization on predictive models of frost for horticultural and fruit crops in Patagonia, Argentina

Abstract

Frost prediction is a major challenge for protecting fruit and vegetable crops, as it depends on complex interactions among meteorological, geographical, and microclimatic factors. While global numerical models can forecast cold events, their accuracy decreases when local conditions are overlooked. Regional features—such as topography, vegetation, wind, soil moisture, and atmospheric dynamics—shape nocturnal temperatures and frost formation, requiring locally calibrated models. This work in progress emphasizes the integration of multizone geographic and site-specific climate data to improve predictive models and support risk management. Case studies will use meteorological data from the San Jorge Gulf Basin and northeastern Santa Cruz, Argentina.