Variabilidad del caudal del río Bermejo en la alta cuenca: relación con la precipitación y principales forzantes del sistema acoplado océano-atmósfera
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24215/1850468Xe039Palabras clave:
Río Bermejo, El Niño-Oscilación del Sur, saltos climáticos, dipolo del Océano ÍndicoResumen
El río Bermejo es uno de los ríos más importantes del norte argentino, y uno de los principales afluentes del río Paraguay y Paraná. Juega un rol importante en diversas actividades económicas y sociales que se dan sobre su cuenca, siendo la agroindustria la actividad principal. Además, es el principal canalizador de la precipitación que tiene lugar en la región de las Yungas y el mayor productor de sedimentos de los ríos de Sudamérica. En este trabajo se estudian datos de caudal de la estación Aguas Blancas y Pozo Sarmiento, dos estaciones telemétricas pertenecientes a la red hidrológica nacional de Argentina con el objetivo de estudiar los forzantes de la variabilidad interanual del caudal del río. Se analizó el comportamiento del caudal mes a mes y se caracterizó su ciclo anual. Se definió el comienzo del ciclo hidrológico en noviembre, una fase húmeda durante los meses de noviembre a abril, y una fase seca durante los meses de mayo a octubre, las dos asociadas al monzón sudamericano y al régimen pluvial del río. Se evaluó la homogeneidad de las series de datos y se encontró un punto de quiebre en la década de los 70 para ambas series, que podría estar asociado al salto climático de 1976/7 y a partir del cual el caudal se vio incrementado hasta en un 40%. A través de un análisis espectral se identificaron variabilidades interanuales significativas potencialmente asociadas al El Niño-Oscilación del Sur (ENOS) y al Dipolo del Océano Índico (IOD por sus siglas en inglés) y una variabilidad bidecadal potencialmente asociada a la Oscilación Decadal del Pacifico (PDO por sus siglas en ingles). Luego, mediante un análisis de correlaciones, se encontró que los meses en que la precipitación afecta más la variabilidad anual del caudal son los meses de enero a abril para la estación Aguas Blancas, y el mes de marzo para la estación Pozo Sarmiento. Se calcularon correlaciones entre el caudal en Aguas Blancas y distintos índices climáticos durante los meses de enero a abril y se encontró que eventos de mayores (menores) caudales se condicen con condiciones tipo La Niña (El Niño) en el océano Pacífico, lo que sugiere una relación lineal entre el caudal y el ENOS. Posteriormente, se calcularon composiciones de distintas variables atmosféricas y oceánicas, y se pudo identificar un patrón de circulación que modula el caudal. Esta circulación es forzada por trenes de onda de Rossby que se producen por anomalías en la temperatura superficial de los océanos Pacífico e Índico (relacionadas al ENOS y al IOD).
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