Nueva climatología de ciclones extratropicales en el Mar Argentino y su impacto en la seguridad náutica

Julieta Arce; María Paula Llano; Alvaro Santiago Scardilli

doi:10.24215/1850468Xe041

Autores/as

Julieta Arce Servicio de Hidrografía Naval, Argentina https://orcid.org/0009-0005-9429-7750
María Paula Llano Universidad de Buenos Aires, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Argentina https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1152-8543
Alvaro Santiago Scardilli Servicio de Hidrografía Naval, Argentina https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6707-9129

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24215/1850468Xe041

Palabras clave:

ciclones extratropicales, Mar Argentino, océano Atlántico Sur, seguridad náutica

Resumen

El conocimiento del comportamiento de los ciclones extratropicales es fundamental para la planificación náutica, ya que permite mitigar su impacto en las embarcaciones. Este estudio empleó datos de presión a nivel del mar y viento del reanálisis NCEP/DOE (1979-2022), analizados mediante un algoritmo automatizado para la identificación y seguimiento de ciclones, que se complementa con técnicas estadísticas. Se construyó una climatología estacional de características ciclónicas como origen, duración, distancia recorrida, profundización de presión e intensidad del viento en el océano Atlántico Sudoccidental, particularmente en el Mar Argentino. Se identificó un máximo de ciclones en la temporada otoño-invierno, mientras que el otoño y primavera registraron los casos más duraderos. Las mayores distancias recorridas y profundizaciones de presión se observaron en invierno. Espacialmente, se determinaron tres áreas de ciclogénesis constantes: la región costera de Argentina, Uruguay y sur de Brasil, y dos al sur de Tierra del Fuego y el Pasaje de Drake, próximas a la Península Antártica. Las trayectorias predominantes coincidieron con las áreas de mayor recurrencia de ciclogénesis. En términos de severidad, los vientos más intensos se concentraron en invierno, y al considerar la estructura propia de estos ciclones, la mayor severidad ocurre en el sector norte. Considerando la escala Beaufort, se estableció un umbral de riesgo de 35 nudos, relevante para la seguridad náutica. El análisis mostró que, nuevamente, el invierno presentó la mayor cantidad de ciclones que mantuvieron este umbral durante todo su tiempo de vida, destacándose como la estación con mayor impacto potencial en la actividad marítima. Los casos de naufragios analizados muestran que diversos eventos fueron afectados por ciclones en las costas patagónicas, haciendo fundamental el conocimiento climatológico y geográfico de estos sistemas para la preparación de los buques ante eventos severos y la mejora de la adaptación de la actividad marítima para su seguridad.

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