Understanding the confidence of agricultural producers in an emerging market

Abstract

This article analyzes the confidence of agricultural producers in Argentina regarding the prosperity of their businesses, identifying it as a key factor for the development of the agricultural sector. The paper proposes a structural equation model (SEM) that allows for the identification of the causal factors that influence confidence. The model also distinguishes three dimensions of confidence: in the economy, in the sector, and in the company, which in turn explain overall producer confidence. Among the main factors that strengthen confidence are respect for private property and the organizational effectiveness promoted by CREA. Conversely, tax pressure and regulatory burden—which have intensified in recent decades—emerge as significant obstacles. Infrastructure, international prices, availability of inputs, and climate expectations also have a positive influence. The results offer valuable evidence for the design of public policies aimed at the growth of the agricultural sector, highlighting that improving legal certainty, alleviating tax pressure, and encouraging investment in infrastructure would be effective measures. The article concludes that trust is a complex construct, shaped by both economic and psychological factors, and proposes extending this approach to other geographical and cultural contexts in future research.