Putting the numbers to work: A correlation analysis between the national budget allocated to employment public policies and labor rates in Argentina between 2011-2015 and 2015-2019 periods

Abstract

This article analyzes the relationship between the Argentine government's budget for labor policies and the social indicators of unemployment, underemployment, and informality during the administrations of Cristina Fernández de Kirchner (2011–2015) and Mauricio Macri (2015–2019). The Argentine Ministry of Economy's Open Budget database, specifically the "Presupuesto de gastos y su ejecución detallada" dataset, was used to filter the amounts invested to promote labor. To calculate the aforementioned labor rates, the results of the Permanent Household Survey of the National Institute of Statistics and Census of the Argentine Republic were considered. This work also describes in detail the methodology used to analyze large open government databases, the reproduction of public social indicators, the deflation process (necessary when comparing budget amounts executed in an inflationary context), and the estimation of missing data using numerical interpolation techniques. The results found that the decline in public investment in labor coincided with an increase in unemployment and underemployment, while informality remained stable. The analysis suggests a negative correlation between labor policy spending and the deterioration of employment indicators, especially during the second period, characterized by reforms aimed at labor flexibility and fiscal adjustment. It also highlights the need to complement this type of research with qualitative approaches. This article was produced by undergraduate students from Computer Science, Political Science and Sociology bachelor's programs as part of the I SocioHackathon organized by the Faculty of Social Sciences at the National University of Córdoba, where it received first prize.