Caracterización espacio-temporal de las sequías meteorológicas en Santa Cruz en el contexto de cambio climático

Leandro Almonacid; Natalia Pessacg; Boris Gastón Diaz; Pablo Luis Peri

doi:10.24215/1850468Xe035

Autores/as

Leandro Almonacid Municipalidad de Río Gallegos, Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria, Argentina https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9295-6821
Natalia Pessacg Instituto Patagónico para el Estudio de los Ecosistemas Continentales, Argentina
Boris Gastón Diaz Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria, Argentina
Pablo Luis Peri Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia Austral, Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria, Argentina https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5398-4408

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24215/1850468Xe035

Palabras clave:

precipitación, sequías, cambio climático, Santa Cruz

Resumen

Las sequías son un fenómeno de escala regional que afecta la seguridad alimentaria, la provisión de agua y energía, cuya severidad, duración y frecuencia se espera aumenten en un contexto de cambio climático. En el presente trabajo se estudió la tendencia en la precipitación anual y estacional en la provincia de Santa Cruz; la ocurrencia de sequías meteorológicas y las proyecciones climáticas hasta el año 2100. Para el cálculo de las sequías se utilizó el Índice Estandarizado de Precipitación (SPI) en una escala de 6 meses (SPI6) para un periodo pasado reciente (1961-2020) y dos periodos futuros (2041-2060 y (2081-2100). Se pudo observar que más de un 70% de la superficie de la provincia presentó una tendencia negativa en la precipitación anual para el periodo 1961-2020. Este efecto fue más acentuado al estudiarlo de forma estacional, donde se observó que durante el otoño e invierno se presentaron las tendencias más negativas, ubicadas hacia la región noroeste de la provincia. La frecuencia de eventos totales de sequía (ES) para el pasado reciente se presentaron entre 2,6 a 4,5 eventos/década, no coincidiendo las zonas más afectadas por sequías con las regiones de tendencias negativas en la precipitación. Con respecto al cambio climático, al analizar los escenarios de mayor emisión de gases de efecto invernadero (GEI), (SSP2-4.5 y SSP5-8.5) para el periodo 2081-2100, se pudo observar que una mayor superficie del territorio provincial será afectada por una disminución en la precipitación anual de hasta un 30% para SSP5-8.5. Analizando las sequías proyectadas, se determinó que la región oeste de la provincia presentará una menor cantidad de eventos de sequía, pero de mayor duración y severidad que en el periodo de referencia acentuándose en el escenario SSP5-8.5.

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