Caracterización espacio-temporal de las sequías meteorológicas en Santa Cruz en el contexto de cambio climático

Leandro Almonacid; Natalia Pessacg; Boris Gastón Diaz; Pablo Luis Peri

doi:10.24215/1850468Xe035

Authors

Leandro Almonacid Municipalidad de Río Gallegos, Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria, Argentina https://orcid.org/0000-0002-9295-6821
Natalia Pessacg Instituto Patagónico para el Estudio de los Ecosistemas Continentales, Argentina
Boris Gastón Diaz Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria, Argentina
Pablo Luis Peri Universidad Nacional de la Patagonia Austral, Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria, Argentina https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5398-4408

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24215/1850468Xe035

Keywords:

precipitation, droughts, climate change, Santa Cruz

Abstract

Droughts are a regional-scale phenomenon that affects food security, the provision of water and energy, whose severity, duration and frequency are expected to increase in a context of climate change. In the present work, the trend in annual and seasonal precipitation in the Santa Cruz province was studied; the occurrence of meteorological droughts and climate projections until the year 2100. To characterize droughts, the Standardized Precipitation Index (SPI) was used on a 6-month scale (SPI6) for a recent past period (1961-2020) and two future periods (2041-2060) and (2081-2100). It was observed that more than 70% of the study area presented a negative trend in annual precipitation for the period 1961-2020. This effect was more accentuated when studied seasonally, where it was observed that during the fall and winter the most negative trends occurred, located towards the northwest region of the province. The frequency of total drought events (DE) for the recent past ranged from 2,6 to 4,5 events/decade, with the areas most affected by drought not coinciding with the regions with negative trends in precipitation. With respect to climate change, when analyzing the scenarios with the highest greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions (SSP2-4.5 and SSP5-8.5) for the period 2081-2100, it was observed that a greater area of the provincial territory will be affected. by a decrease in annual precipitation of up to 30% for SSP5-8.5. Analyzing the projected droughts, it was determined that the western region of the province will present a lower number of drought events but of greater duration and severity than in the reference period, accentuating in the SSP5-8.5 scenario.

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