Relaciones Rx1-ENSO y Rx1-SAM en Tucumán (Argentina): una visión centenaria
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https://doi.org/10.24215/1850468Xe037Palabras clave:
lluvia extrema, El Niño Oscilación del Sur, Modo Anular del Sur, inundacionesResumen
Este trabajo presenta un análisis de un registro centenario de precipitación máxima diaria de verano (Rx1) en San Miguel de Tucumán (TUC), la ciudad más poblada del Noroeste Argentino y vulnerable a sufrir inundaciones. Se identificó una relación significativa entre Rx1 y El Niño Oscilación del Sur (ENSO) y el Modo Anular del Sur (SAM), con influencia en baja frecuencia de la Oscilación Decadal del Pacífico (PDO). Se destaca que Rx1 no ha sido previamente analizada con este enfoque en la región. Un nuevo método, basado en la determinación en la búsqueda del periodo con máxima significancia estadística en el coeficiente de correlación, permitió identificar relaciones no estacionarias entre Rx1-ENSO y Rx1-SAM. Además, mediante composiciones de variables atmosféricas del ERA5 se obtuvieron los patrones anómalos que justifican las relaciones detectadas. Específicamente, se observó una transición de una relación más estrecha entre Rx1-ENSO (1945-1974) hacia una relación más estrecha Rx1-SAM (1974-2007). Los efectos de ENSO sobre Rx1 son más evidentes que los de SAM. Como responsable de la transición en las relaciones Rx1-ENSO y Rx1-SAM se destaca el rol de PDO. Particularmente, en el caso de ENSO durante la fase negativa de PDO, se observan anomalías significativas de humedad y vientos en 700 hPa, lo cual justifica la existencia de la relación Rx1-ENSO en TUC. Mientras tanto, en el caso de SAM negativa en PDO positiva, hay anomalías ciclónicas sobre los subtrópicos de Sudamérica que debilitan el flujo de humedad hacia TUC y generan valores más bajos de Rx1. Además de los efectos en la correlación, también se encontró que en escalas multidecadales PDO modula los valores medios de Rx1, de manera tal que se observan valores más elevados de Rx1 en PDO positiva. Este trabajo sirve como base para una futura investigación más amplia que incluirá más estaciones sobre el norte de Argentina.
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Derechos de autor 2024 Franco Dario Medina, Bruno S. Zossi, Ana G. Elias
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