Relaciones Rx1-ENSO y Rx1-SAM en Tucumán (Argentina): una visión centenaria

Franco Dario Medina; Bruno S. Zossi; Ana G. Elias

doi:10.24215/1850468Xe037

Authors

Franco Dario Medina Universidad Nacional de Tucumán, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Argentina
Bruno S. Zossi Universidad Nacional de Tucumán, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Argentina
Ana G. Elias Universidad Nacional de Tucumán, Consejo Nacional de Investigaciones Científicas y Técnicas (CONICET), Argentina

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24215/1850468Xe037

Keywords:

extreme rainfall, El Niño Southern Oscillation, Southern Annular Mode, floods

Abstract

This study presents an analysis of a century-long record of the December-March daily maximum precipitation (Rx1) in San Miguel de Tucumán (TUC), the most populous city in Northwestern Argentina, which is vulnerable to flooding. A significant relationship was identified between Rx1 and the El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and the Southern Annular Mode (SAM), with low-frequency influence from the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO). The Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO) does not influence this relationship based on the results obtained. A new method, based on determining the period with maximum statistical significance in the correlation coefficient, allowed for the identification of non-stationary relationships Rx1-ENSO and Rx1-SAM. Additionally, through ERA5 atmospheric variable composites, the patterns associated to the relations were analyzed. Specifically, a transition was observed from a stronger Rx1-ENSO relationship (1945-1974) to a stronger Rx1-SAM relationship (1974-2007). The effects of ENSO on Rx1 are more evident than those of SAM. The role of PDO is highlighted as responsible for the transition in the Rx1-ENSO and Rx1-SAM relationships. Particularly, in the case of ENSO during the negative phase of PDO, significant anomalies in humidity and winds at 700 hPa are observed, justifying the existence of the Rx1-ENSO relationship in TUC. Meanwhile, in the case of negative SAM during positive PDO, cyclonic anomalies over the subtropics of South America weaken the moisture flow toward TUC, resulting in lower Rx1 values. In addition to the effects on correlation, it was also found that on multidecadal scales, PDO modulates the mean values of Rx1, with higher Rx1 values observed during positive PDO.

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