Expectativas, estabilidad y el mercado de cambio futuro

Abstract

The purpose of this paper is the dynamic analysis of the forward exchange market under inflationary conditions which are assumed to determine the speculator`s expectations about the future price of foreign exchange. In the first part, the individual equilibrium of the activities of arbitrage, speculation and commercial hedging are studied. In the second part, the determination of the simultaneous equilibrium in the spot and forward foreign exchanged markets is analyzed. Two alternative policy measure and their effects on the international flow of short term capital are studied within the analytical framework of this sections. In the third part the local stability conditions of both foreign exchange markets are analyzed and the effects of changes in the expected rate of inflation and in the rate of interest are studied. A later paper will try to apply this model to the short term capital movements of the balance of payments of Argentina in the period 1960-67 characterized by a high rate of inflation.