El gasto de consumo en la Argentina: un análisis econométrico

Abstract

In this paper we develop a parsimonious conditional model of consumers´ expenditure in Argentina for 1977-1990. Our set of information contains, beside expenditure, income and inflation. All variables are measured quarterly. In specifying our model, we follow the econometric approach known as "general-to-particular" methodology. We address issues of empirical model design and evaluation, cointegration and exogeneity. The empirical model is robust and has constant, well determined parameter estimates. These features are specially remarkable in a period of great macroeconomic instability which includes two hyperinflationary processes. The validity of our conditional model supports the adequacy of the usual assertions about two prominent features of the Argentine economy: i) the great importance of current income in explaining consumers´ expenditure; ii) the transmission of the volatility of inflation to the volatility of aggregate demand via consumers´ expenditure.