Sostenibilidad de las políticas fiscales, exogeneidad y causalidad entre ingresos y gastos para las provincias argentinas

Abstract

This paper analyzes firstly the sustainability of fiscal processes for the argentine provinces. Secondly it inquires about the exogeneity and Granger causality between revenues and expenditures, not only to offer a relevant guide to achieve a reduction in fiscal deficits, but also to understand what the adjustment should be like to reduce the size of the public sector. The results show that most provinces have weak or unsustainable fiscal processes and that the strategies to improve such situation are diverse, just as the strategies that would reduce the size of the public sector.