Un modelo econométrico del sector externo de la República Argentina

Abstract

The author describes the behaviour of Argentine exports and imports during the 1955/67 period. A distinctive feature of this paper is the level of disaggregation in which the model works: three types of products (raw materials to the Agriculture, Mining and Manufacturing sectors). From the statistical point of view meaningful equations are achieved. Regarding the theoretical framework of the model one must mention the agriculture-export equations, specially the one that refers to raw materials and intermediate products, that enhances the role played by the world imports index, the implicit rate of exchange and the weight of the capacity utilization index. With reference to imports, the author manages to describe the process of import substitution in each of the equations. Another characteristic is the importance given to macroeconomic statistical information, as its availability or readiness is essential to the development of econometric studies.