Políticas de esterilización del superávit o déficit de la balanza de pagos: la experiencia alemana entre 1958 y 1968

Abstract

The modern theory of economic polity suggests that in the case of fixed exchange rates it is necessary to modify the monetary policy in relation to the equilibrium of the balance of payments and fiscal policy in order to maintain domestic equilibrium. Nevertheless, a policy of neutralizing the effects of a surplus or a deficit has been applied in Germany between the years 1958-1968 which is based on long-term intervention in the money market and varying the reserve requirements of commercial banks. Following the German example, this paper attempts to find an answer, at empirical level, to the question, do monetary policies of neutralizing the effects of a surplus or a deficit assure domestic and foreign equilibrium? Section II is entirely devoted to present a simulation model, which is estimated in Section III. In Section IV the model is used in order to evaluated the effects of alternative monetary policies. The results thus obtained allow us to state that the conditions under which the model was formulated, such measures for monetary policies determine a domestic interest rate high enough to attract capital towards Germany. Hence, due to the effects of monetary policies on the different levels of domestic interest rate, it is not possible to achieve either a domestic or a foreign equilibrium.