La propuesta intertemporal de la cuenta corriente

Abstract

In this paper, we estimate a version of an intertemporal current account model. This model utilizes an econometric approach developed by Campbell and Campbell and Shiller for a closed economy (the permanent income hypothesis of consumption under rational expectations) to test a similar implication for an open economy. The paper uses a model of optimal external borrowing to estimate a time series of the optimal consumption smoothing current account for Argentina. The time series of the optimal current account generated by the model serves as a benchmark against which to judge the actual data.