Analysis of the dynamics of time series from meteorological variables in the climatological station CHONE, Ecuador
Keywords:
chaos, phase space, recurrence plots, meteorological variables, surrogate testAbstract
Climate studies have been a subject of great interest through history, since the XVII century with the creation of the first measurement instruments for meteorological variables, being the main reason the performance of accurate weather forecasts. Mathematical, statistical and computational methods are commonly used for this purpose but most of them are linear in nature. This causes relevant information and nonlinear components to remain hidden. In this study, the dynamic behavior of the meteorological variables rainfall, evaporation, temperature, and wind speed, at the climatological 52 station of Chone (M0162) were analyzed. Weather observations were provided by the Ecuadorian Institute for Meteorology and Hydrology (INAMHI). The Matlab software allowed us to perform three chaos measurement techniques on the four variables studied in order to seek some hints of chaos in the time series. The first technique used was the probability distribution, followed by the reconstruction of the phase space diagrams, and finally the recurrence plot of each variable was constructed. As a result, four histograms, four phase space diagrams and four recurrence plots of the variables were obtained. The results were classified according to their dynamics. Finally, using the recurrence quantification analysis and a surrogate test it was possibly to distinguish a slight degree of
determinism in the time series, concluding that the variables were not stochastic.
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