Ajuste del caudal máximo anual con la función general de valores extremos en contexto no-estacionario
Keywords:
Cuyo, eventos hidrológicos extremos, modelo no estacionario, variabilidad climáticaAbstract
La variabilidad climática y el cambio climático desafı́an los supuestos de estacionariedad, dando lugar al desarrollo de nuevos métodos para la estimación de los parámetros de las funciones de distribución. El objetivo es identificar la presencia de no-estacionariedad en una serie temporal de caudal máximo anual regional y modelar los extremos hidrológicos en un contexto no estacionario. Para ello, se emplearon diversas técnicas estadı́sticas de detección de tendencia y saltos abruptos. Se ajustó la función general de valores extremos mediante el método de máxima verosimilitud, considerando la anomalı́a de temperatura superficial del mar en la región 3.4 del océano Pacı́fico ecuatorial como co-variable. Se identificó una tendencia significativa y saltos en los años 1971 y 2007. El modelo no estacionario presentó un mejor ajuste de los datos observados, y los cuantiles estimados representan la variabilidad interanual de la serie. Estos resultados aportan información para la planificación de los recursos hı́dricos en un contexto de variabilidad climática.
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