Simulación de los extremos de precipitación en Sudamérica
Abstract
En las últimas décadas las investigaciones sobre el impacto de los eventos climáticos extremos han aumentado debido a sus efectos en los ecosistemas, la agricultura y la disponibilidad de agua. Por ello, este trabajo analiza el rendimiento de los modelos climáticos globales (MCG) de la Fase 6 del Proyecto de Intercomparación de Modelos Acoplados (CMIP6) para simular dos ı́ndices climáticos de precipitaciones extremas: máxima cantidad de dı́as consecutivos húmedos y secos (CWD y CDD respectivamente) en Sudamérica (SA) en el trimestre OND para el perı́odo 1981-2010. Existe una gran dispersión entre los modelos al representar los ı́ndices extremos, lo cual se hace evidente al analizar el sesgo del conjunto de modelos. En términos generales, hay una tendencia a sobrestimar las rachas húmedas en toda la región y a subestimar las rachas secas, principalmente en el norte de Sudamérica y en el centro-norte de Argentina. Estos resultados son importantes como un primer paso para analizar los MCG a escala regional y en trabajos futuros para comprender mejor las proyecciones de cambio climático en términos de extremos climáticos.
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References
Eyring, V., Bony, S., Meehl, G. A., Senior, C. A., Stevens, B., Stouffer, R. J., & Taylor, K. E. (2016). Overview of the coupled model intercomparison project phase 6 (cmip6) experimental design and organization. Geosci. Model Dev., 9, 1937–1958. https://doi.org/10.5194/gmd-9-1937-2016
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Hirahara, S., Horányi, A., Muñoz-Sabater, J., Nicolas, J., Peubey, C., Radu, R., Schepers, D., et al. (2020). The ERA5 global reanalysis. Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 146(730), 1999–2049.
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Copyright (c) 2025 María Florencia Iacovone, Vanesa Pántano, Olga Penalba
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