Estancamiento e inflación en un modelo de crecimiento desequilibrado

Abstract

This paper is concerned with growth performance in semi-industrialized countries. It presents a three sector unbalanced growth model which describes paths for the following variables: agricultural production, industrial production, government expenditure, national income, exports, imports, labour employed in each sector, the exchange rate and prices. It assumes a given pattern of population growth, thecnological progress and terms of trade behaviour. Development requires a change in production structure but external balance prevents such a change: the economy is forced to follow a balanced growth path. The clash between the requirements for development and the constraints imposed by the external sector upon the economy results in a process of structural inflation and declining income per capita. Wage indexing accelerates inflation without any improvement in real wages.