Expectativas, predicciones keynesianas y otras predicciones

Abstract

The article considers relations connecting classes of explanations and laws with classes of probabilities and predictions. Expectations appear in this context as a subclass of predictions and predictions associated with a class of probabilities. Subjective probability introduced in keynesian dynamics is then used as an element of discussion on aspects of recent debates on "rational" expectations, keynesianism and monetarism. The result should have been to reinforce the argument according to which the economic explanation has to introduce decisions and these decisions cannot be understood without expectations. "Decisions are taken in the light of beliefs about their future consequences".