Explicando las fluctuaciones del producto en la Argentina

Abstract

The aim of this paper is to study the properties of GNP evolutions in Argentina. In order to do that I postulate a bivariate model of output and inflation which allow to recover an interpretable moving average representation for both series. The innovations are identified by a restriction which distinguishes between shocks which have a permanent effect and those which only generate a transitory impact on the level of GNP. If transitory innovations are considered highly related to demand shocks and permanent innovations to supply or technological shocks the results of the paper can be used to evaluate the effectiveness of aggregate demand policies. The results are very intuitive. Demand shocks have only a mild effect on the level of GNP but strong positive effects on the level of inflation. Demand shocks explain more than 80% of the variation in inflation. On the contrary supply shocks explain about 90% of output fluctuations.