La hipótesis monetarista del proceso inflacionario en el caso argentino: dinero exógeno vs. dinero endógeno

Abstract

In this paper we are going to develop the main propositions concerning the monetarist approach to the inflationary process in the Argentine case. Throughout the paper, we are going to make a clear distinction between models in which the supply of money is exogenous and models where the later is endogenous. The endogeneity of the supply of money is derived from two types of theoretical contexts that have been proved to be relevant for the argentine economy: monetary financing of fiscal deficits induced by lags in tax collection and the assumption of an open economy with a fixed exchange rate regime. From the empirical evidence discurred in the paper we conclude that the monetarist model with exogenous supply of money has a reasonable explanatory power until de mid 70´s. From this period on, and in coincidence with the acceleration of the inflationary process, the model with endogenous supply of money due to fiscal deficit induced by lag in tax collection sums to fit better the behaviour or the inflation rates.