Los  impactos de la guerra comercial entre China y EEUU en las negociaciones del acuerdo MERCOSUR-Unión Europea

Flavia Loss de Araujo

doi:10.24215/24689912e059

Authors

Flavia Loss de Araujo Fundação Escola de Sociologia e Política de São Paulo, Brasil

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24215/24689912e059

Keywords:

trade war, MERCOSUR, European Union

Abstract

This study analyzes how the trade war between China and the United States influenced the acceleration of negotiations for the agreement between MERCOSUR and the European Union (EU) during the period 2016–2019, culminating in the signing of an agreement in principle in July 2019. Through a literature review and semi-structured interviews with bureaucrats involved in the negotiations, the article identified three systemic changes that altered the perception and urgency of the agreement: the shift in U.S. foreign trade policy during Donald Trump's administration and the responses of the European Union and MERCOSUR to this crisis. The theoretical framework used was Neorealism, and the results highlighted that the trade war prompted changes in the strategies of the actors involved in the negotiations, who opted for closer cooperation to address the impacts of the crisis between China and the United States.

Author Biography

Flavia Loss de Araujo, Fundação Escola de Sociologia e Política de São Paulo, Brasil

Doctora por el Instituto de Relações Internacionais da Universidade de São Paulo (IRI-USP) y posdoctoranda do Instituto de Estudos Avançados (IEA) de la USP. Es coordinadora de Posgrado em Política y Relaciones Internacionales de la Fundação Escola de Sociologia e Política de São Paulo (FESPSP) y profesora em el Instituto Mauá de Tecnologia. Investigadora del Observatório de Regionalismo (ODR), de GRIDALE y del centro de estudios CiGlo (Ciudades Globales). ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0289-674X CV Lattes: http://lattes.cnpq.br/4823340535977387 Email: flavialossaraujo@gmail.com

References

Autor, D., Dorn, D. y Hanson, G. (2013). The China Syndrome: Local Labor Market Effects of Import Competition in the United States. American Economic Review, 103(6), 2121-2168. https://dói.org/10.1257/aer.103.6.2121

Barrenengoa, A. y Kan, J. (2022). La política exterior del gobierno de Mauricio Macri en clave regional: ¿volvimos al mundo? Perfiles latinoamericanos, 31(61). https://doi.org/10.18504/pl3161-005-2023

Blenkinsop, P. (13 de junio de 2019). Trade deal with Mercosur is no. 1 priority: EU trade chief. Reuters.

Bown, C. y Kolb, M. (31 de diciembre de 2023). Trump’s trade war timeline: an up-to-date guide. Peterson Institute for International Economics.

Devonshire-Ellis, C. (19 de noviembre de 2019). Developing Global Free Trade: Linking China’s BRI with Mercosur, South America. China Briefing.

Etzioni, A. (24 de agosto de 2020). Biden Joins the Anti-China Chorus. The Diplomat.

Fajgelbaum, P., Goldberg, P., Kennedy, P., Khandelwal, A. y Taglioni, D. (2024). The US-China Trade War and Global Reallocations. American Economic Review: Insights, 6(2), 295-312. https://doi.org/10.1257/aeri.20230094

Fajgelbaum, P. y Khandelwal, A. (2022). The economic impacts of the US-China trade war. Annual Review of Economics, 14, 205-228. https://doi.org/10.1146/annurev-economics-051420-110410

Farnillah, A. N. y Paksi, A. (2023). The China-US trade dispute in Neo-Realism perspective and settlement of dispute by the WTO. Jurnal Inovasi Ilmu Sosial dan Politik, 5(2), 130–140. https://doi.org/10.33474/jisop.v5i2.20089

Frieden, J. (2021). Attitudes, Interests, and the Politics of Trade. Political. Science Quarterly. https://doi.org/10.1002/polq.13360

Goulard, S. (2020). The Impact of the US–China Trade War on the European Union. Global Journal of Emerging Market Economies, 12(01). https://doi.org/10.1177/0974910119896642

Heo, Y. (2022). Free Trade and the US-China Trade War: A Network Perspective. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781003305705

Laursen, F. y Roederer-Rynning, C. (2017). Introduction: the new EU FTAs as contentious market regulation. Journal of European Integration, 39(7), 763-779. https://doi.org/10.1080/07036337.2017.1372430

Li, Y. y He, Z. (2022). The Remarking of China-Europe Relations in the New Era of US-China Antagonism. Journal of Chinese Political Science, 27, 439-455. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11366-022-09792-5

Lobell, S., Ripsman, N. y Taliaferro, J. (2009). Neoclassical Realism, the State, and Foreign Policy. Cambridge University Press.

Malamud, A. (Eds.). (2003). Presidentialism and Mercosur: a Hidden cause for a successful experience. En F. Laursen (Coord.), Comparative Regional Integration: Theoretical Perspectives. Routledge. https://doi.org/10.4324/9781315197111

Manners, I. (2002). Normative Power Europe: A contradiction in terms? Journal of Common Market Studies, 40(2). https://doi.org/10.1111/1468-5965.00353

Meyer, T. (2018). Free Trade, Fair Trade, and selective enforcement. Columbia Law Review, 118(2).

Riggirozzi, P. y Tussie, D. (2012). The rise of post-hegemonic regionalism: The case of Latin America. Springer. https://doi.org/10.1007/978-94-007-2694-9

Schweller, R. L. y Pu, X. (2011). After Unipolarity: China’s Visions of International Order in an Era of U.S. Decline. International Security, 36(1), 41-72. https://doi.org/10.1162/ISEC_a_00044

Valero, J. (2017). Comission pushes for concluding Mercosur deal by end of year. Euractiv.

Zelicovich, J. (2019). El acuerdo Mercosur-Unión Europea en su Recta Final. Fundación Carolina, (13), 1-12. https://doi.org/10.33960/AC_13.2019