Estudio de sensibilidad de la precipitación mensual esperada en años El Niño
Keywords:
composites, forzantes climáticos, Sudeste de SudaméricaAbstract
El análisis estadı́stico de la señal climática de un forzante remoto en una determinada región puede estar influenciado por el perı́odo de estudio, la base de datos utilizada, etc. En este trabajo se evalúa la sensibilidad del análisis de composites de las anomalı́as de precipitación en el Sudeste de Sudamérica según las distintas fases del fenómeno de El Niño-Oscilación del Sur. Para ello se llevó a cabo un análisis comparativo a partir de distintas bases de datos; para la escala trimestral y mensual; y para distintas intensidades del ı́ndice El Niño Oceánico (ONI, por sus siglas en inglés). A su vez, se analizó la variabilidad año a año y la sensibilidad a la ocurrencia de algún evento extremo puntual. Entre los principales resultados se destaca que las regiones con mayor señal presentan mayor robustez en los composites, principalmente en cuanto a las bases de datos y el perı́odo utilizado. La diferencia entre el análisis a escala mensual y trimestral resulta de especial reunión importancia para los sectores productivos en los que un cambio de anomalı́as durante el trimestre analizado puede cambiar las decisiones de los usuarios.
Downloads
References
Cai, W., McPhaden, M. J., Grimm, A. M., Rodrigues, R. R., Taschetto, A. S., Garreaud, R. D., Dewitte, B., Poveda, G., Ham, Y. G., & Santoso, A. (2020). Climate impacts of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation on South America. Nature Reviews Earth and Environment, 1, 215–231. https://doi.org/10.1038/s43017-020-0040-3
Chen, M., Shi, W., Xie, P., Silva, V. B., Kousky, V. E., Higgins, R. W., & Janowiak, J. E. (2008). Assessing objective techniques for gauge-based analyses of global daily precipitation. Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, 113(D4). https://doi.org/10.1029/2007JD009132
Hersbach, H., Bell, B., Berrisford, P., Dahlgren, P., Horányi, A., Munoz-Sebater, J., Nicolas, J., Radu, R., Schepers, D., Simmons, A., & Soci, C. (2020). The ERA5 global reanalysis: achieving a detailed record of the climate and weather for the past 70 years. European Geophysical Union General Assembly, 3–8.
Santoso, A., McPhaden, M. J., & Cai, W. (2017). The defining characteristics of ENSO extremes and the strong 2015/2016 El Niño. Reviews of Geophysics, 55(4), 1079–1129. https://doi.org/10.1002/2017RG000560
Schneider, U., Fuchs, T., Meyer-Christoffer, A., & Rudolf, B. (2008). Global precipitation analysis products of the GPCC. Global Precipitation Climatology Centre (GPCC), DWD Internet Publikation, 112.
Willmott, C. J., Matsuura, K., & Legates, D. R. (1998). Global air temperature and precipitation: regridded monthly and annual climatologies (version 2.01). Reporte técnico, Center for Climatic Research, University of Delaware, Newark.
Xie, P. & Arkin, P. A. (1997). Global precipitation: A 17-year monthly analysis based on gauge observations, satellite estimates, and numerical model outputs. Bulletin of the American Meteorological Society, 78(11), 2539–2558. https://doi.org/10.1175/1520-0477-78.11.2539
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2025 Vanesa C. Pántano, Olga C. Penalba
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Starting in 2022 (Vol. 43 number 2) articles will be published in the journal under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International license (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0)
According to these terms, the material can be shared (copied and redistributed in any medium or format) and adapted (remixed, transformed and created from the material another work), provided that a) the authorship and the original source of its publication (journal and URL of the work), b) is not used for commercial purposes and c) the same license terms are maintained.
Prior to this date the articles were published in the journal under a Creative Commons Attribution license (CC BY)
In both cases, the acceptance of the originals by the journal implies the non-exclusive assignment of the economic rights of the authors in favor of the editor, who allows reuse, after editing (postprint), under the license that corresponds according to the edition.
Such assignment means, on the one hand, that after its publication (postprint) in the GEOACTA Magazine of the Association of Geophysicists and Geodesists, the authors can publish their work in any language, medium and format (in such cases, it is requested that it be recorded that the material was originally published in this journal); on the other, the authorization of the authors for the work to be harvested by SEDICI, the institutional repository of the National University of La Plata, and to be disseminated in the databases that the editorial team considers appropriate to increase visibility. of the publication and its authors.
Likewise, the journal encourages the authors so that after their publication in the Journal of the Association of Geophysicists and Geodesists, they deposit their productions in other institutional and thematic repositories, under the principle that offering society scientific production and Unrestricted academic scholarship contributes to a greater exchange of global knowledge.
