Habilidad de los métodos de reducción de escala para representar eventos extremos de precipitación y el impacto en los caudales del Rı́o Uruguay
Abstract
El sudeste de Sudamérica está frecuentemente afectado por eventos de sequı́a e inundación, en este último caso asociadas a tormentas convectivas. En este trabajo se evalúa la capacidad del modelo hidrológico VIC de representar los eventos extremos de caudales en la cuenca del Rı́o Uruguay al ser alimentado por información meteorológica resultante de aplicar una técnica de reducción de escala dinámica utilizando 2 modelos climáticos con convección permitida en una escala de 4 km de resolución espacial. Para el modelo WRF se dispusieron de dos simulaciones con configuraciones diferentes fuera de la convección permitida, mientras que para el modelo RegCM se analizaron 3 simulaciones, dos con la misma versión del modelo pero una modificación en la representación de la capa lı́mite atmosférica y la tercera una versión anterior del modelo. La lluvia del modelo WRF_UCAN es la que mejor representa la precipitación total diaria observada en la cuenca. Sin embargo, existen diferencias entre la magnitud y localización de los eventos de precipitación diaria en los modelos que se traducen en diferencias en el tiempo y magnitud de los picos de los caudales. En el caso del WRF_UCAN, el modelo tiende a sobreestimar los caudales. En particular, la intensidad y distribución de la lluvia del evento de precipitación extrema generó picos mucho más extremos que los observados en Paso de los Libres.
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