After the US dollar: Prospects for the international monetary system
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24215/23142766e160Keywords:
dollar, international monetary system, criptocurrency, CBDCAbstract
Since the end of Bretton Woods agreement, every global economic crisis sparks speculation about the role of the US dollar in the world economy. However, the American currency continues to be the key currency of the international monetary system, despite the fact that there is no international rule or agreement that supports it. Although until now the forecasts about an eventual end of its hegemony have always been refuted, the United States economic vulnerabilities, geopolitical tensions and the emergence of digital currencies open up this question once again in a world still in crisis by COVID-19. This article tries to analyze the main existing alternatives that could reshape the international monetary system in the medium term.
Downloads
References
Agence France-Presse (5 de noviembre de 2018). Le résau SWIFT suspend des banques iraniennes après le retour des sanctions américaines. Le Temps. https://www.letemps.ch/monde/reseau-swift-suspend-banques-iraniennes-apres-retour-sanctions-americaines
Aglietta, M., Arrondel, L., Dufrénot, G., Espagne, E., Faivre A., Guy, Y., Tertre, R., Masson, A. y Oman, W. (2019). Capitalisme. Le temps des ruptures. Editions Odile Jacob.
Aglietta, M. y Coudert, V. (2015). El Dólar. Pasado, presente y futuro. Capital Intelectual.
Aglietta, M. y Coudert, V. (2019). The dollar and the Transition to Sustainable Development: From Key Currency to Multilateralism. Centre d’Etudes Prospectives et d’Informations Internationales, Policy Brief Nº26, 1-12.
Aglietta, M. y Orléan, A. (2002). La monnaie entre violence et confiance. Editions Odile Jacob.
Bolton, P., Despres, M., Pereira Da Silva, L., Samama, F. y Svartzman, R. (2020). The green swan: central banking and financial stability in the age of climate change. Banco de Pagos Internacionales.
Banco de Pagos Internacionales (2019). Triennal Central Bank Survey. Foreign exchange turnover in April 2019 [Archivo PDF]. https://www.bis.org/statistics/rpfx19_fx.pdf
Corkely, M. (12 de mayo de 2016). Once again, thieves enter Swift financial network and steal. The New York Times. https://www.nytimes.com/2016/05/13/business/dealbook/swift-global-bank-network-attack.html
Cox, R.W. (1981). Social Forces, States and World Orders: Beyond International Relations Theory. Millennium-Journal of International Studies, 10(2), 126–155.
Doff, N. y Biryukov, A. (12 de agosto de 2020). Russia Ditches the Dollar for Bulks of Its Exports to China. Bloomberg. https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2020-08-12/russia-ditches-the-dollar-for-bulk-of-its-exports-to-china
Favas, M. (7 de mayo de 2020). Geopolitics and technology threaten America’s financial dominance. The Economist. https://www.economist.com/special-report/2020/05/07/geopolitics-and-technology-threaten-americas-financial-dominance
Fernández-Villaverde, J., Sanches, D., Schiling, L. y Uhlig, H. (2020). Central Bank Digital Currency: Central Banking for all ? Working Paper 26753, National Bureau of Economic Research. http://www.nber.org/papers/w26753
Fleming, S., Khan, M. y Brundsen, J. (21 de julio de 2020). EU leaders strike deal on €750bn recovery fund after marathon summit. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/713be467-ed19-4663-95ff-66f775af55cc
Fondo Monetario Internacional (1969). The International Monetary Fund 1945-1965 Volume III: Documents.
Fondo Monetario Internacional (s.f.). Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange. https://data.imf.org/?sk=E6A5F467-C14B-4AA8-9F6D-5A09EC4E62A4&sId=1408206195757
Fondo Monetario Internacional (2021). World Economic Outlook. Managing Divergent Recoveries. https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WEO/Issues/2021/03/23/world-economic-outlook-april-2021
Fondo Monetario Internacional (2021). IMF Governors Approve a Historic US$650 Billion SDR Allocation of Special Drawing Rights. Press release nº21/235. https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2021/07/30/pr21235-imf-governors-approve-a-historic-us-650-billion-sdr-allocation-of-special-drawing-rights
Grandjean, A. y Giraud, G. (2017). Comparaison des modèles météorologiques, climatiques et économiques : quelles capacités, quelles limites, quels usages ? Working paper, Chaire Énergie & Prosperité.
Grupo Intergubernamental de Expertos sobre el Cambio Climático (2021). Climate Change 2021: the Physical Science Basis. https://www.ipcc.ch/report/sixth-assessment-report-working-group-i/
Hayek, F.A. (1976). Denationalization of Money. The Institute of Economic Affairs.
Hudson, M. y Van De Mieroop, M. (2002). Debt and Economic Renewal in the Ancient Near East. CDL Press.
Jordà, O., Singh, S. y Taylor, A. (2020). The long-run effect of monetary policy. Working Paper 26666, National Bureau of Economic Research. http://www.nber.org/papers/w26666
Keen, S. (14 de noviembre de 2019). ‘4°C of global warming is optimal’ – even Nobel Prize winners are getting things catastrophically wrong. The Conversation. https://theconversation.com/4-c-of-global-warming-is-optimal-even-nobel-prize-winners-are-getting-things-catastrophically-wrong-125802
Kumar, A. y Rosenbach, E. (20 de mayo de 2020). Could China’s Digital Currency Unseat Dollar? Foreign Affairs. https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/china/2020-05-20/could-chinas-digital-currency-unseat-dollar
Kynge, J. y Hornby, L. (6 de junio de 2018). China eyes role as world’s power supplier. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/bdc31f94-68aa-11e8-b6eb-4acfcfb08c11
Lascurain Fernández, M. (2017). Challenges of economic globalization. Revista de Relaciones Internacionales, Estrategia y Seguridad, 12(1), 23-50.
Le Maux, L. (2001). Le prêt en dernier ressort : Les chambres de compensation aux Etats-Unis durant le XIXe siècle, Annales. Histoire, Sciences Sociales. 56(6), 1223-1251.
Luzzi, M. (2010). Las monedas de la crisis. Pluralidad monetaria en la Argentina de 2001. Revista de Ciencias Sociales, segunda época, 17(1), 205-221.
Mathews, J.A. y Selden, M. (2018). China: The Emergence of the Petroyuan and the Challenge to US Dollar Hegemony, The Asia-Pacific Journal. https://apjjf.org/2018/22/Mathews.html
McKinsey Global Institute (2009). An exorbitant privilege? Implications of reserve currencies for competitiveness.
MonedaPAR. (s.f.). ¿Cómo funciona Moneda Par? https://www.monedapar.com.ar/funcionamiento-del-sistema/
Nakamoto, S. (11 de febrero de 2009). Bitcoin open-source implementation of P2P currency. P2P foundation. http://p2pfoundation.ning.com/forum/topics/bitcoin-open-source
Natixis (14 de septiembre de 2020). The United States’ social model still has the well-known drwabacks but has lost its advantages [Archivo PDF]. https://research.natixis.com/Site/en/economics/publication/t6k2VXffI4K9-h8MxJOYbA%3D%3D
Natixis (23 de abril de 2021). Correcting the euro’s zone structural problems would cause the dollar to fall [Archivo PDF]. https://research.natixis.com/Site/en/economics/publication/UOWL39caP-zR7WgME9hp5w%3D%3D
Pfister, C. (2017). Monetary Policies and Digital Currencies: Much ado about nothing? Working Paper 642, Banque de France. https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3038906
Polanyi, K. (1983). La grande transformation. (Maurice Angeno y Catherine Malamoud, Trad.). Editions Gallimard. (Obra original publicada en 1944).
Raskin, M. y Yermack, D. (2016). Digital currencies, decentralized ledgers, and the future of central banking. Documento de Trabajo N°22238, National Bureau of Economic Research. https://www.nber.org/papers/w22238
Roubini, N. (19 de noviembre de 2018). Why Central Bank Digital Currency will destroy cryptocurrency. Project Syndicate. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/central-banks-take-over-digital-payments-no-cryptocurrencies-by-nouriel-roubini-2018-11
Servet, J.M. (2021). Le bitcoin, mirage monétaire et désastre écologique. Institut Rousseau. https://www.institut-rousseau.fr/le-bitcoin-mirage-monetaire-et-desastre-ecologique/
Summers, L. (4 de febrero de 2021). Opinion: the Biden stimulus is admirably ambitious. But it brings some big risks, too. The Washington Post. https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2021/02/04/larry-summers-biden-covid-stimulus/
Taleb, N. N. (2007). The Black Swan. Penguin Random House.
Taskinsoy, J. (2020). Diminishing Dollar Hegemony: What Wars and Sanctions Failed to Accomplish, COVID-19 has. https://dx.doi.org/10.2139/ssrn.3570910
Théret, B. (2011). Du keynésianisme au libertarianisme. La place de la monnaie dans les transformations du savoir économique autorisé. Revue de la régulation [En ligne], 10. http://journals.openedition.org/regulation/9529
Todd, E. (2020). Les luttes de classe en France au XXIe siècle. Editions du Seuil.
Truman, E. (5 de agosto de 2020). The United States should finally support an allocation of the IMF’s special drawing rights. Peterson Institute for International Economics. https://www.piie.com/blogs/realtime-economic-issues-watch/united-states-should-finally-support-allocation-imfs-special
Valdecantos, S. (2018). Moneda Par: un sistema monetario al servicio de la producción y el trabajo [Archivo PDF]. V Cumbre Cooperativas de las Américas, Cooperativas de las Américas. https://www.aciamericas.coop/IMG/pdf/2.3_sebastian_valdecantos.pdf
Vallet, G. (2015). Le WIR en Suisse : la révolte du puissant ? Revue de la régulation [En ligne], 18(2). http://journals.openedition.org/regulation/11463
Varoufakis, Y. (18 de octubre de 2019). The IMF should take over Libra. Project Syndicate. https://www.project-syndicate.org/commentary/international-monetary-fund-should-take-over-facebook-libra-by-yanis-varoufakis-2019-10
Yi, G. (16 de Julio de 2018). The IMF should turn to special drawing rights in its Covid-19 response. Financial Times. https://www.ft.com/content/e7efef20-3960-46e7-922b-112dba8f2def
Downloads
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2022 Adrien Sergent
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-NoDerivatives 4.0 International License.
Aquellos autores/as que tengan publicaciones con esta revista, aceptan los términos siguientes:
- Los autores/as conservarán sus derechos de autor y garantizarán a la revista el derecho de primera publicación de su obra. A partir de noviembre del 2020 los artículos se publicarán en la revista bajo una licencia Creative Commons Atribución- NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0 Internacional (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0). Acorde a estos términos, el material se puede compartir (copiar y redistribuir en cualquier medio o formato) y adaptar (remezclar, transformar y crear a partir del material otra obra), siempre que a) se cite la autoría y la fuente original de su publicación (revista y URL de la obra), b) no se use para fines comerciales y c) se mantengan los mismos términos de la licencia.
Previo a esta fecha los artículos se publicaron en la revista bajo una Licencia de reconocimiento de Creative Commons (BY-SA 2.5). - Los autores/as podrán adoptar otros acuerdos de licencia no exclusiva de distribución de la versión de la obra publicada (p. ej.: depositarla en un archivo telemático institucional o publicarla en un volumen monográfico) siempre que se indique la publicación inicial en esta revista.
- Se permite y recomienda a los autores/as difundir su obra a través de Internet (p. ej.: en archivos telemáticos institucionales o en su página web) antes y durante el proceso de envío, lo cual puede producir intercambios interesantes y aumentar las citas de la obra publicada. (Véase El efecto del acceso abierto).
