Expectativas, rezagos fiscales y la trampa de alta inflación

Abstract

This paper summarizes the analytical rela-tions among inflationary expectations, fiscal lags and inflation in the framework advanced by Cagan (1956). The introduction of the Olivera (1967) and Tanzi (1977) effect produces the following main results: a.) if expectations are adaptive, Cagans stability condition is not sufficient to eliminate "the high inflation trap". b.) if expectations are fully rational, the "high inflation trap" remains unchanged. In both cases, a tight fiscal policy is not able, by it self, to diminish the inflation rate of stationary solution.