La naturaleza de los pronósticos expertos en psicología

Gustavo

doi:10.24215/2422572Xe152

Authors

Gustavo Facultades de Humanidades y Psicología, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata (Argentina) https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0542-7380

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.24215/2422572Xe152

Keywords:

expert prognosis, scientific prediction, technological forecast, classification criteria, taxonomy

Abstract

Expert prognosis in psychology is a specific type of anticipatory statement, different from other types of foresight that can be found in that discipline, like scientific predictions and technological forecast. Even though the three types of statements share some basic properties (all of them are rationally based statements, for example), their differences have not been usually explored in detail. To contribute to a conceptual elucidation of expert prognosis, in this paper we suggest six criteria that allow us to identify and distinguish them from the other types of anticipatory statements. These criteria are the following: 1) context, 2) the purpose, 3) the foundation, 4) the presence or absence of intervention, 5) the reflexive character, and 6) the object. In addition, we suggest a taxonomy of expert prognosis based on the type of object of prognosis and on the presence or absence of intervention in the process.

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Author Biography

Gustavo, Facultades de Humanidades y Psicología, Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata (Argentina)

Gustavo Fernández Acevedo es licenciado en Psicología y doctor en Filosofía. Se desempeña como profesor titular regular de Epistemología de la Psicología (Facultad de Psicología) y Filosofía de la Ciencia (Facultad de Humanidades) en la Universidad Nacional de Mar del Plata, donde ha dirigido varios proyectos de investigación. Además, ha publicado artículos sobre temas de filosofía de la psicología y de la ciencia en Análisis Filosófico, Revista de Filosofía, Crítica, Interdisciplinaria y Manuscrito. Es autor también de los libros Causación mental y explicación psicológica y El autoengaño. Anatomía de una pasión humana.

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