The nature of expert prognosis in psychology
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24215/2422572Xe152Keywords:
expert prognosis, scientific prediction, technological forecast, classification criteria, taxonomyAbstract
Expert prognosis in psychology is a specific type of anticipatory statement, different from other types of foresight that can be found in that discipline, like scientific predictions and technological forecast. Even though the three types of statements share some basic properties (all of them are rationally based statements, for example), their differences have not been usually explored in detail. To contribute to a conceptual elucidation of expert prognosis, in this paper we suggest six criteria that allow us to identify and distinguish them from the other types of anticipatory statements. These criteria are the following: 1) context, 2) the purpose, 3) the foundation, 4) the presence or absence of intervention, 5) the reflexive character, and 6) the object. In addition, we suggest a taxonomy of expert prognosis based on the type of object of prognosis and on the presence or absence of intervention in the process.
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