Scenario thinking as a strategy for institutional analysis in Latin American Universities
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24215/23143738e139Keywords:
Latin America, higher education, scenario thinkingAbstract
Higher education institutions environment undergoes constant changes, which greatly increases the complexity and uncertainty that universities around the world and, in particular, those from Latin America must process. This essay outlines a theoretical and methodological model for using the scenario thinking method as a strategy in university institutional analysis aimed at generating evidence for decision-making in contexts of high uncertainty. It begins by exposing the characteristics of the Latin America’s university and its environment, continuing with a discussion on the nature of the organizational environment and the contribution of the scenarios to its observation. Finally, we present guidelines for its application is presented concerning three dimensions: (1) sources of evidence and management of non-knowledge, (2) structural characteristics of the university environment, and (3) methodological procedures on which the contribution of these scenarios should be based.
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