Scenario thinking as a strategy for institutional analysis in Latin American Universities
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.24215/23143738e139Keywords:
Latin America, higher education, scenario thinkingAbstract
Higher education institutions environment undergoes constant changes, which greatly increases the complexity and uncertainty that universities around the world and, in particular, those from Latin America must process. This essay outlines a theoretical and methodological model for using the scenario thinking method as a strategy in university institutional analysis aimed at generating evidence for decision-making in contexts of high uncertainty. It begins by exposing the characteristics of the Latin America’s university and its environment, continuing with a discussion on the nature of the organizational environment and the contribution of the scenarios to its observation. Finally, we present guidelines for its application is presented concerning three dimensions: (1) sources of evidence and management of non-knowledge, (2) structural characteristics of the university environment, and (3) methodological procedures on which the contribution of these scenarios should be based.
Downloads
Metrics
References
Avitabile, C. (2017). The rapid expansion of higher education in the new century. En M. M. Ferreyra, C. Avitabile, J. Botero Álvarez, F., Haimovich Paz y S. Urzúa (Eds.), At a crossroads: Higher education in Latin America and the Caribbean (pp. 47-75). Banco Mundial. https://doi.org/10.1596/978-1-4648-1014-5_ch1
Barends, E., Rousseau, D. M. y Briner, R. B. (2014). Evidence-based management: The basic principles. Center for Evidence-Based Management.
Barreda Tamayo, H. V. (2016). Planteamiento estratégico en universidades de América Latina. Revista Gestao Universitária na América Latina, 9(1), 257-277. http://dx.doi.org/10.5007/1983-4535.2016v9n1p257
Briner, R. B., Denyer, D. y Rousseau, D. M. (2009). Evidence-based management: Concept cleanup time? Academy of Management Perspectives, 23(4), 19-32. https://doi.org/10.5465/amp.23.4.19
Burt, G. y van der Heijden, K. (2002). Reframing industry boundaries for structural advantage: The role of scenario planning. En G. Ringland (Ed.), Scenarios in business (pp. 223-232). Wiley.
Cairns, G. y Wright, G. (2018). Scenario thinking. Preparing your organization for the future in an unpredictable world (2ª ed.). Palgrave Macmillan.
Chermack, T. J. (2011). Scenario planning in organizations. How to create, use, and assess scenarios. Berrett-Koehler Publishers.
Cisternas Irarrázabal, C. (2021). Análisis del entorno en la gestión universitaria: una aproximación desde la teoría de sistemas sociales. Actualidades Investigativas en Educación, 21(1), 1-21. https://doi.org/10.15517/AIE.V21I1.44075
Coppola, M., Russolillo, M. y Simone, R. (2020). On the management of retirement age indexed to life expectancy: A scenario analysis of the Italian longevity experience. Journal of Risk Finance, 21(3), 217-231. https://doi.org/10.1108/JRF-01-2020-0012
Fernández Darraz, E. y Bernasconi, A. (2012). Elementos conceptuales para el análisis organizacional de universidades en contextos de mercado. INNOVAR, 22(46), 87-97.
Godet, M. (2000). The art of scenarios and strategic planning: tools and pitfalls. Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 65(1), 3-22. https://doi.org/10.1016/S0040-1625(99)00120-1
Godet, M. y Roubelat, F. (1996). Creating the future: the use and misuse of scenarios. Long Range Planning, 29(2), 164-171. https://doi.org/10.1016/0024-6301(96)00004-0
HakemZadeh, F. y Baba, V. V. (2016). Toward a theory of collaboration for evidence-based management. Management Decision, 54(10), 2587-2616. https://doi.org/10.1108/MD-06-2015-0243
Han, H., Zongwei, L., Fuquan, Z., Weiqi, L. y Wen, H. (2015). Scenario analysis of energy consumption and greenhouse gas emissions from China's passenger vehicles. Energy, 91, 151-159. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2015.08.054
Hori, K., Saito, O., Hashimoto, S., Matsui, T., Akter, R. y Takeuchi, K. (2020). Projecting population distribution under depopulation conditions in Japan: Scenario analysis for future socio-ecological systems. Sustainability Science, 16, 295-311. https://doi.org/10.1007/s11625-020-00835-5
Jalilian, N., Zanjirchi, S. M. y Goh, M. (2020). Interactive scenario analysis of banking credit risks in intuitive fuzzy space. Journal of Modelling in Management, 15(1), 257-275. https://doi.org/10.1108/JM2-01-2019-0011
Kahn, H. y Wiener, A. J. (1967). The year 2000: A framework for speculation on the next thirty-three years. Macmillan.
Knudsen, M. (2017). From evidence-based management to management of non-knowledge. Emergence: Complexity and Organization, 19(2), 1-8.
König, H. (2005). Discursos de identidad, Estado-nación y ciudadanía en América Latina. Historia y Sociedad, 11, 9-31. https://repositorio.unal.edu.co/handle/unal/35728
Luhmann, N. (1998). Complejidad y modernidad. De la unidad a la diferencia. Trotta.
Luhmann, N. (2006). La sociedad de la sociedad. Herder/Universidad Iberoamericana.
Luhmann, N. (2010). Organización y decisión. Herder/Universidad Iberoamericana.
Martelli, A. (2014). Models of scenario building and planning. Facing uncertainty and complexity. Palgrave Macmillan.
Martelli, P. F. y Hayirli, T. C. (2018). Three perspectives on evidence-based management: Rank, fit, variety. Management Decision, 56(10), 2085-2100. https://doi.org/10.1108/MD-09-2017-0920
Mascareño, A. (2003). Teoría de sistemas en América Latina. Conceptos fundamentales para la descripción de una diferenciación funcional concéntrica. Persona y Sociedad, 17(2), 9-26.
Morin, E. (2005). Introducción al pensamiento complejo. Gedisa.
Naisbitt, J. (1982). Megatrends: Ten new directions transforming our lives. Warner Books.
Oficina Regional de Educación para América Latina y el Caribe. (2013). Situación educativa de América Latina y el Caribe: hacia la educación de calidad para todos al 2015. ORELAC.
Ouhader, H. y El Kyal, M. (2020). Assessing the economic and environmental benefits of horizontal cooperation in delivery: Performance and scenario analysis. Uncertain Supply Chain Management, 8(2), 303-320.
Pfeffer, T. y Stichweh, R. (2015). Systems theoretical perspectives on higher education policy and governance. En J. Huisman, H. de Boer, D. Dill y M. Souto-Otero (Eds.), The Palgrave international handbook of higher education policy and governance (pp. 152-175). Palgrave Macmillan.
Pfeffer, J. y Sutton, R. I. (2006). Evidence-based management. Harvard Business Review, 84, 62-74. https://hbr.org/2006/01/evidence-based-management
Ramírez, R. y Wilkinson, A. (2016). Strategic reframing. The Oxford scenario planning approach. Oxford University Press.
Rodríguez-Ponce, E. y Pedraja-Rejas, L. (2009). Dirección estratégica en universidades: un estudio empírico en instituciones de Iberoamérica. Interciencia, 34(6), 413-418.
Saupe, J. L. (1990). The functions of institutional research. Association for Institutional Research.
Schwartz, P. (1991). The art of the long view. Planning for the future in an uncertain world. Doubleday.
Steier, G. y Steier, L. (2016). The hierarchy of scientific evidence. En G. Steier y K. Patel (Eds.), International food law and policy (pp. 319-320). Springer.
Stichweh, R. (2007). The Eigenstructures of World Society and the Regional Cultures of the World. En I. Rossi (Ed.), Frontiers of globalization research (pp. 133-150). Springer.
Torres Rojas, E. (2016). Gobierno universitario en entornos de debate social en Chile. Observaciones desde la teoría de sistemas. Polis, 15(43), 655-680. http://dx.doi.org/10.4067/S0718-65682016000100030
Tranfield, D., Denyer, D. y Smart, P. (2003). Towards a methodology for developing evidence-informed management knowledge by means of systematic reviews. British Journal of Management, 14(3), 207-222. https://doi.org/10.1111/1467-8551.00375
Organización de las Naciones Unidas para la Educación, la Ciencia y la Cultura. (2021). UNESCO Science Report: The race against time for smarter development. UNESCO. https://unesdoc.unesco.org/ark:/48223/pf0000377433
Volkwein, J. F. (2008). The foundations and evolution of institutional research. New Directions for Higher Education, 141, 5-20. https://doi.org/10.1002/he.289
Wack, P. (1985). Scenarios: Uncharted waters ahead. Harvard Business Review, 63(5), 73-89. https://hbr.org/1985/09/scenarios-uncharted-waters-ahead
Wack, P. (1985). Scenarios: Shooting the rapids. Harvard Business Review, 63(6), 139-150. https://hbr.org/1985/11/scenarios-shooting-the-rapids
Webber, K. L. (2018). Institutional research and decision support in higher education: consideration for today and for tomorrow. En K. L.
Webber (Ed.), Building capacity in institutional research and decision support in higher education (pp. 3-18). Springer.
Webber, K. y Calderon, A. (2015). Institutional research and planning: its role in higher education decision support and policy development. En J. Huisman, H. de Boer, D. Dill y M. Souto-Otero (Eds.), The Palgrave international handbook of higher education policy and governance (pp. 192-208). Palgrave Macmillan.
Zimmermann, N. (2011). Dynamics of drivers of organizational change. Gabler.
Downloads
Additional Files
Published
How to Cite
Issue
Section
License
Copyright (c) 2024 César Cisternas Irarrázabal
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial-ShareAlike 4.0 International License.
Those authors who have publications with this journal, agree with the following terms:
a. Authors will retain its copyright and will ensure the rights of first publication of its work to the journal, which will be at the same time subject to the Creative Commons Atribución-NoComercial-CompartirIgual 4.0 Internacional (CC BY-NC-SA 4.0) allowing third parties to share the work as long as the author and the first publication on this journal is indicated.
b. Authors may elect other non-exclusive license agreements of the distribution of the published work (for example: locate it on an institutional telematics file or publish it on an monographic volume) as long as the first publication on this journal is indicated,
c. Authors are allowed and suggested to disseminate its work through the internet (for example: in institutional telematics files or in their website) before and during the submission process, which could produce interesting exchanges and increase the references of the published work. (see The effect of open Access)
