Expectativas inflacionarias de los ejecutivos de finanzas

Abstract

The inflationary expectations of businessmen, economists, households, etc. are not recorded in Argentina. Nevertheless, an exception is provided by surveys among financial executives carried out by a private organization; they made quarterly predictions of price increases for III-1983 to IV-1985. Two concepts of rational expectations may be distinguished in an inflationary environment. Weak rational expectations exist when price forecasts, whichever the way used to obtain them, are validated by actual price increases. Strong rational expectations exist when, on top of weak rational expectations, the predictions take into consideration the information available at the moment of formulation. A statistical analysis shows that weak rational expectations are found among financial executives, although strong rational expectations are not consistently observed.